China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% and September exports rose 29.6%, while online sales of goods grew only 3.8% in nine months, so carriers lean on exports. Beijing proposed 40 new technology export controls on 16 October before Xi meets Trump at APEC in Shenzhen.
Background Western doors close to China's parcels, so the platforms move the warehouse (updated 23 October 2026)
Read the source → The briefing, 15 min →Presidential run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
For your parcels A sub-US$50 parcel into Brazil is cheaper but still pays ICMS, and its clearance data must now support seller vetting and split-shipment checks.
Open in the Radar →Quarterly identity and income report for Q3 2026 due (rule: within the month after quarter end)
For your parcels No change at the border, but Chinese sellers' real revenues become visible to the tax authority, which makes undervalued or informal export flows harder to sustain.
Open in the Radar →Reported target for both sides to publish tariff reduction lists and apply the cuts together once domestic procedures are complete (end of 2026; no exact date)
For your parcels Some typical e-commerce categories may become cheaper to import in bulk, but each China-origin parcel still pays normal duty plus the 12.5% Section 301 tariff.
Open in the Radar →Exports through overseas warehouses grew 3.3-fold in the first half, and Amazon adds China to US air services into its fulfilment centres.
The full barometer →8 rules tracked, ordered by the next date. Each has its own page with dates, sources and what to prepare.
Presidential run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazil · In forceQuarterly identity and income report for Q3 2026 due (rule: within the month after quarter end)
China (State Council; State Taxation Administration) · In forceReported target for both sides to publish tariff reduction lists and apply the cuts together once domestic procedures are complete (end of 2026; no exact date)
United States and China · AdoptedTwo-year limit for IEEPA refund suits under 28 U.S.C. 1581(i) could expire as early as this month (month only)
United States · In forceNext USMCA joint review, which frames the preferential courier treatment for US and Canadian goods (month only)
Mexico · In forceLast export date covered by the returns tax relief (Announcement 2026 No. 16)
China (Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, State Taxation Administration) · In forcePlatforms under pressure delist faster and in bulk, which strands parcels in transit and raises recall, return and destruction volumes for carriers.
European Union · In forceCarriers handling Chinese platform volume could face Chinese oversight and data requests on top of destination-market rules.
China (draft amendment to the E-Commerce Law) · ProposedEvery customs, tax and postal deadline in your markets, sourced from the official text, in the calendar you already use. When a date moves, your calendar moves with it.
Free, no sign-up, nothing tracked. One link can be shared with your compliance, operations and commercial teams so everyone works from the same dates. Information, not legal advice.
Every rule on one route, with the dates coming and what to prepare.
Check a route →Washington extended its truce with Beijing but kept the de minimis door shut, while Brussels now charges every small parcel. China's platforms and carriers answer by shipping in bulk and delivering locally, and small sellers pay the transition.
Platforms go localUS-China truceTrade · Global e-commerceThe US, the EU, the UK and Japan are ending duty-free treatment for low-value e-commerce parcels, while Brazil has just reopened its door. For carriers and platforms, the question is no longer whether a small parcel pays, but who declares it, on what data and from which warehouse.
End of de minimisEU customs reformGeopolitics · Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia is about to sign a regional digital economy pact while Washington hunts transshipment and its own governments close the low-value parcel gap. For carriers and platforms, origin data and in-market stock now decide who keeps the volume.
ASEAN rulebookUS-China truceRegulation · European UnionSince 1 July a €3 duty applies to every tariff line in a low-value parcel, and from 1 November a €2 handling fee follows. Volumes into the main EU gateways have roughly halved, and the fight is now over who pays, who carries the liability and who owns the data.
EU customs reformEnd of de minimisAs Western governments tax every small parcel, China's platforms keep selling by changing format: they ship in containers, clear once and deliver from warehouses inside the market. Beijing finances the shift as export policy, so the volume stays but moves from air mail to domestic last mile.
Washington uses access to its market as leverage over Beijing, and Beijing answers with its control of rare earths; neither wants a rupture, so they trade short truces. When the Supreme Court removed the emergency tariff tool, Washington rebuilt its tariffs on other statutes, but the duty-free parcel did not come back.
Capacity, network, M&A, partnerships, closures and pricing moves, dated and sourced. Patterns across these lines are where the signals come from.
September data: SF handled 7.3% fewer parcels but earned 7.7% more per parcel; STO (+2.4%) and Yunda (+5.9%) also raised revenue per parcel, while YTO cut it 5.8% and grew volume 12.3%. National express volume rose only 2.1% to 17.23 billion parcels, revenue 5.6%. Phoenix New Media (ifeng Finance)
Platforms go localNetworks consolidateJ&T Express handled 9.58 billion parcels in the third quarter (+24.8%): 2.89 billion in Southeast Asia (+44.5%), 6.43 billion in China (+15.3%) and 270.8 million in its newer markets (+159.5%). Kosmo! (J&T Global Express release)
ASEAN rulebookPlatforms go localCorreios and AliExpress renewed their delivery contract and signed a memorandum to speed up deliveries in Brazil around 11.11 and Black Friday, with more processing capacity and better tracking; no figures were disclosed. Agência Brasil
LatAm splitEnd of de minimisAmazon told sellers of two new China to US air services: Air SMP, with daily flights from Shanghai and Hong Kong to fulfilment centres in five US regions in an estimated 7 to 10 days, and Economy Air, 11 to 15 days from Shanghai or Shenzhen to Los Angeles; prices were not disclosed. Supply Chain Dive
US-China trucePlatforms go localGuangzhou handled 320 million parcels during the 1 to 7 October National Day holiday, up 7.3% year on year. Guangzhou Daily (Dayoo)
Networks consolidateCross-border logistics operator Anjun is investing R$220 million through 2027 in regional hubs in Recife, Brasília and Manaus, R$100 million of it for airport operations including customs infrastructure, X-ray and automated sorting; it says Manaus deliveries that take 15 to 25 days could arrive in about two business days. E-Commerce Brasil
LatAm splitEnd of de minimisState Post Bureau monitoring data show China's express parcel volume for 2026 passed 150 billion items on 29 September, 12 days earlier than in 2025. China News Service
Networks consolidateJD.com's property arm signed with KEZAD Group to build a 150,000 sq m automated logistics facility in Abu Dhabi's Kezad zone, due for completion in 2028 with about 1,000 direct jobs. The National
North Africa gatewayPlatforms go localSF Airlines launched a Boeing 767 Shanghai to Singapore freighter route, building out Changi as its first overseas hub for South-east Asia, South Asia and Oceania under an MoU signed with Changi Airport Group earlier in 2026. Air Cargo News
ASEAN rulebookJD Logistics said its overseas floor space exceeded 2 million sq m at 30 June 2026 across more than 200 bonded, direct-mail and overseas warehouses in 26 countries and regions, including the UAE, targeting two to three-day delivery. PR Newswire (JD Logistics)
Platforms go localPlatforms must file their quarterly identity and income report on sellers for the third quarter.
EU rules for parcels sent from here into the EU: product identifiers mandatory on low-value e-commerce declarations and a €2 handling fee per item.
CeMAT ASIA 2026, Shanghai.
China International Import Expo, Shanghai.
178 US exclusions from the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods are valid only until this date.
Singles' Day (Double 11) peak in China.
Comments close on the MOFCOM and MOST proposal to add 40 items (AI, biomedicine, photovoltaics) to China's list of technologies restricted from export.
APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, Shenzhen.
China International Logistics and Supply Chain Fair, Shenzhen (dates to confirm).
Revised E-Commerce Law extending rules to logistics and payment providers.