US and China, tariffs and truces
Washington uses access to its market as leverage over Beijing, and Beijing answers with its control of rare earths; neither wants a rupture, so they trade short truces. When the Supreme Court removed the emergency tariff tool, Washington rebuilt its tariffs on other statutes, but the duty-free parcel did not come back.
From geopolitics to the parcel
- 2026-02-20
The Supreme Court struck down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.5253
- 2026-05
A bilateral Board of Trade was set up during President Trump's visit to Beijing to negotiate tariff lists.54
- 2026-09-24
During Xi Jinping's state visit the truce was extended to 10 January 2027, with China keeping its pause on new rare-earth export controls.5556
- 2026-09
China asked for easier access to advanced artificial intelligence chips at the September summit and did not get it.57
- 2026-03-11proposed
USTR opened Section 301 investigations into structural excess capacity in 16 economies, with findings still pending.58
- 2026-06-24in force
CBP suspended the de minimis exemption for all modes, and nothing in the truce reopens duty-free entry for low-value shipments.554
- 2026-07-24in force
A 12.5% Section 301 tariff applies to Chinese products, part of a forced-labour action covering some 60 economies after the Section 122 surcharge lapsed.59
- 2026-09adopted
The two sides agreed tariff cuts on about $60 billion of trade, $30 billion each way, returning about 90% of listed products to MFN rates; Washington has not published a start date.54
- 2026-05
UPS returned to year-on-year volume growth on the China to United States lane.60
- 2026-08
Chinese e-commerce air exports to North America were roughly flat in August while those to Europe fell 40%.28
- 2026-08
Northeast Asia to North America air rates held at $5.76 per kg while China to Western Europe fell to $3.85.61
- 2026-08-24
PDD's net income fell 12% in the second quarter as it onboards local merchants and invests in local warehousing.6214
- ↑ Cost
China-origin parcels pay 12.5% under Section 301 on top of normal duties, and the truce does not change that for parcels.59
- ↕ Volume
Transpacific e-commerce volume has recovered while China to Europe falls, as capacity is redeployed to the Pacific.2861
- ↑ Network
The flow changes format: platforms ship in bulk to American warehouses and sell through local merchants, so the parcel arrives as a domestic shipment.1460
- ↑ Compliance
The Section 301 rates are tied to forced-labour import policy, so origin and supplier evidence now decide the rate a parcel pays.59
Our reading: the truces are getting shorter and cover bulk trade in non-sensitive goods, not the parcel, so planning should assume no return of duty-free entry to the United States whatever happens at APEC. Each expiry date, now 10 January 2027, is a repricing date for transpacific capacity and for any contract priced on current tariffs.
What comes next
- 2026-11-03United States midterm elections
- 2026-11-18APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen, with Trump reported to attend
- 2027-01-10Expiry of the extended Washington-Beijing truce and the pause on rare-earth export controls
The lens behind the decisions
Companies visibly affected
Solution landscape
Read the full analysis
Western doors close to China's parcels, so the platforms move the warehouse
Washington extended its truce with Beijing but kept the de minimis door shut, while Brussels now charges every small parcel. China's platforms and carriers answer by shipping in bulk and delivering locally, and small sellers pay the transition.
Platforms go localUS-China truceTrade policy · North AmericaAmerica charges every parcel and puts North America's trade pact on a yearly leash
Washington has written the end of de minimis into customs law, rebuilt its tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling and refused to renew the USMCA. Parcels now clear as full imports, flows inside North America have become one-sided, and margin is moving to whoever holds the broker licence and local stock.
USMCA leashEnd of de minimisGeopolitics · Southeast AsiaASEAN bets on one digital rulebook as every border starts taxing the parcel
Southeast Asia is about to sign a regional digital economy pact while Washington hunts transshipment and its own governments close the low-value parcel gap. For carriers and platforms, origin data and in-market stock now decide who keeps the volume.
ASEAN rulebookUS-China truceSources
- U.S. CBP indefinitely suspends de minimis exemption for all modes of importation · KPMG TaxNewsFlash
- Temu owner invests in local fulfillment in face of de minimis changes · Supply Chain Dive
- Chinese air cargo e-commerce volumes under pressure in August · Air Cargo News
- And the (Tariff) Beat Goes On: New Section 301 Forced-Labor Tariffs · Holland & Knight
- Tariff Reset: Section 122 Expires as Section 301 Duties Expand to 60+ U.S. Trading Partners · UHY
- U.S. and China to Cut Tariffs on $60 Billion of Goods · TIME
- US, China to extend trade war truce by 2 months · Supply Chain Dive
- 'Hostile, but hooked': What's behind the US-China trade truce extension · Al Jazeera
- The Limits of Trump and Xi's Photo-Op Summit · Council on Foreign Relations
- Fact Sheet: USTR initiates Section 301 investigations into structural excess capacity and production · Office of the United States Trade Representative
- Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies · Federal Register (USTR)
- Top 5 takeaways from UPS's Q2 2026 earnings announcement · UPS
- Xeneta: August air cargo demand grows 6% · Air Cargo News
- PDD Holdings Announces Second Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Results · PDD Holdings via Nasdaq