Datafolha (20 to 22 October) has Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied at 50% of valid votes, Quaest has Flávio 45% to 44% and Vox has Lula ahead by 50.6% to 49.4%. The zero federal tax on parcels under US$50 is law, so Sunday's run-off shapes the 2027 consumption tax and the future of Correios, which Flávio has said should be privatised.
What it means Brazil's small-parcel tax is gone before the vote, but the real bill for cross-border e-commerce will be written in the 2027 consumption tax and in the compliance data platforms and carriers must now supply.
Read the briefing, 15 min →Presidential run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
For your parcels A sub-US$50 parcel into Brazil is cheaper but still pays ICMS, and its clearance data must now support seller vetting and split-shipment checks.
Open in the Radar →CBS takes full effect and PIS and Cofins end; CBS applies to low-value international purchases
For your parcels The zero federal import tax does not mean zero federal tax: from 2027 a small parcel will carry CBS, and checkout data must show it.
Open in the Radar →Brazil's seller vetting duties for platforms, Uruguay's identity checks and Colombia's forced-labour seizure powers add checks on each parcel.
The full barometer →6 rules tracked, ordered by the next date. Each has its own page with dates, sources and what to prepare.
Presidential run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazil · In forceCBS takes full effect and PIS and Cofins end; CBS applies to low-value international purchases
Brazil · AdoptedPostal and courier parcels into Argentina now compete on the same terms, with duty prepayment possible before arrival.
Argentina · In forceTax is collected at checkout rather than at the border, so parcels arrive tax-paid and clearance depends on platform registration data.
Chile · In forceParcels under US$200 still enter Colombia without VAT when conditions are met, but a move to platform collection would add 19% at checkout.
Colombia · In forceA small parcel into Uruguay that used to arrive tax-free now pays 22% VAT, and its buyer must match the card holder and pass customs identity checks.
Uruguay · In forceEvery customs, tax and postal deadline in your markets, sourced from the official text, in the calendar you already use. When a date moves, your calendar moves with it.
Free, no sign-up, nothing tracked. One link can be shared with your compliance, operations and commercial teams so everyone works from the same dates. Information, not legal advice.
Every rule on one route, with the dates coming and what to prepare.
Check a route →Brazil has zeroed the federal tax on imports up to US$50 and turned it into law less than four weeks before the 4 October election, while Mexico taxes Asian parcels harder and Argentina opens up. For carriers and platforms, the next fight is the 2027 consumption tax and the compliance data it will demand.
LatAm splitEnd of de minimisTrade · Global e-commerceThe US, the EU, the UK and Japan are ending duty-free treatment for low-value e-commerce parcels, while Brazil has just reopened its door. For carriers and platforms, the question is no longer whether a small parcel pays, but who declares it, on what data and from which warehouse.
End of de minimisEU customs reformGeopolitics · ChinaWashington extended its truce with Beijing but kept the de minimis door shut, while Brussels now charges every small parcel. China's platforms and carriers answer by shipping in bulk and delivering locally, and small sellers pay the transition.
Platforms go localUS-China truceCapacity, network, M&A, partnerships, closures and pricing moves, dated and sourced. Patterns across these lines are where the signals come from.
DHL Supply Chain expects more than 37 million e-commerce units across Black Friday and Christmas in Brazil, 19% above a normal month, with about 2,600 extra temporary staff across five fulfilment sites, and plans sites in Fortaleza and Porto Alegre in 2027. Consumidor Moderno
LatAm splitNetworks consolidateJadlog reached 5,500 service points in Brazil, aiming for a point within 500 metres of every Brazilian, and is building a São Paulo hub costing over R$200m, designed to double its processing capacity. Mercado & Consumo
LatAm splitMercado Livre said it will end 2026 with 72 large logistics centres in Brazil, about 20 more than in 2025, with its own network now handling 96% of deliveries and 77% delivered within 48 hours, inside a R$57 billion Brazil plan for 2026. Transporte Moderno
LatAm splitNetworks consolidateCorreios reported on-time delivery of 95.77% on 6 October and a new sorting machine at its Guarulhos (São Paulo) parcel centre able to process up to 520,000 items in 20 hours, fully running in November. Correios press room
LatAm splitChilean carrier Blue Express doubled its smart-locker target from 1,000 to 2,000 (about 800 installed), expects about 60 million packages in 2026 (54 million last year) and plans a Pudahuel distribution centre for 1.5 million packages a day from March 2027, within a US$100 million plan to 2030. La Tercera
LatAm splitNetworks consolidateCorreios launched its Black Friday 2026 campaign with 15% to 35% discounts on postings for contract customers on its Pacote Platinum and Diamante plans, scaled by volume. Mercado & Consumo
LatAm splitCorreios and AliExpress renewed their delivery contract and signed a memorandum to speed up deliveries in Brazil around 11.11 and Black Friday, with more processing capacity and better tracking; no figures were disclosed. Agência Brasil
LatAm splitEnd of de minimisCross-border logistics operator Anjun is investing R$220 million through 2027 in regional hubs in Recife, Brasília and Manaus, R$100 million of it for airport operations including customs infrastructure, X-ray and automated sorting; it says Manaus deliveries that take 15 to 25 days could arrive in about two business days. E-Commerce Brasil
LatAm splitEnd of de minimisDafiti launched next-day delivery in the city of São Paulo for its own stock and Dafiti Full marketplace sellers on orders placed Monday to Thursday by 5pm, using a new transport partner and a dedicated fleet, with expansion planned to Greater São Paulo, Campinas and Rio de Janeiro. Tecnologística
LatAm splitMercado Livre opened a 100,000 sq m logistics centre of two warehouses in São Bernardo do Campo (São Paulo state), its third in the city, with 600 direct jobs initially and 1,500 expected by the end of 2026. Diário do Grande ABC
LatAm splitBrazilian presidential run-off between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
Colombia hopes to sign a reciprocal trade deal with the United States, which would cut the 12.5% tariff on apparel, footwear and flowers (month only, not guaranteed).
Brazil implementing rules after the end of the 20% import tax up to US$50 (law signed 10 Sep).
New federal VAT (CBS) to apply to small imports; rate still to be confirmed.
Intermodal South America 2027, São Paulo.