Latin America splits on the parcel
Across Latin America the cheap imported parcel is both a cost-of-living issue at the ballot box and an industrial-policy grievance. Brazil and Argentina have sided with the shopper, Mexico with the factory, and the next fight is over consumption taxes and the data platforms must hand over.
From geopolitics to the parcel
- 2026-03
A poll found 62% of Brazilians naming the small-parcel tax the government's biggest mistake, ahead of the October election.2
- 2026-05-01
The EU-Mercosur agreement took provisional effect, while the European Parliament has referred it to the EU's top court.88
- 2026-07
Washington confirmed a 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods, citing practices including the Pix payment system.89
- 2025-10-25in force
Chile charges 19% VAT through foreign platforms on goods up to $500.90
- 2026-01-01in force
Mexico's 33.5% courier rate for non-treaty origins was followed by tariffs of 5% to 50% on 1,463 tariff lines, mainly from China.8581
- 2026-07in force
Argentina unified postal and courier treatment by decree and extended the $3,000 per-shipment cap to the postal channel.9192
- 2026-09-10in force
Brazil's Law 15,502 confirms a zero federal import tax up to $50 via Remessa Conforme and adds seller-vetting and reporting duties for platforms; state ICMS of 17% to 20% still applies.9394
- 2027-01-01expected
Brazil's new federal consumption tax, CBS, takes full effect, ahead of IBS gradually replacing ICMS from 2029.95
- 2026-06
Argentina's courier imports reached $518 million from January to May, up 113% year on year.96
- 2026-08
Brazil recorded 26.5 million import declarations in August, up 74% year on year.16
- 2026-08-05
Mercado Libre's items sold rose 45%, with cross-border GMV up 60% and volume through its China fulfilment centre up 170% on the quarter.97
- 2026-08-29
Correios lost R$5.6 billion in the first half; international parcels had fallen from about 22% of its revenue in 2024 to 8% in 2025.9899
- ↑ Volume
Direct parcels into Brazil and Argentina are growing fast after the tax cuts and higher caps.1696
- ↓ Cost
Brazil's zero federal rate makes a $50 basket cheaper but not untaxed, since state ICMS still applies.94
- ↑ Compliance
Platforms must verify seller identity and bank data, monitor split shipments and report quarterly, so clearance data requirements tighten.93
- ↑ Network
In Mexico, high parcel rates relocate Asian volume into containers, local fulfilment and domestic last mile.85
Our reading: Brazil's zero rate is likely to hold through the election because both leading candidates back it, so the reversal risk moves to the 2027 consumption tax design, the Supreme Court case and the Finance Ministry reviews. Lanes into Brazil and Argentina are open but politically reversible, while Mexico rewards local stock over parcels.
What comes next
- 2026-10-04Brazil general election, first round
- 2026-10-25Brazilian presidential run-off, if needed
- 2027-01-01CBS takes full effect in Brazil; watch how it applies to low-value imports
The lens behind the decisions
Companies visibly affected
Solution landscape
Read the full analysis
Brazil scraps its small-parcel tax before the vote. Latin America splits on the parcel
Brazil has zeroed the federal tax on imports up to US$50 and turned it into law days before the 4 October election, while Mexico taxes Asian parcels harder and Argentina opens up. For carriers and platforms, the next fight is the 2027 consumption tax and the compliance data it will demand.
LatAm splitEnd of de minimisTrade · Global e-commerceThe small-parcel door closes: who pays, who declares, and where volume goes
The US, the EU, the UK and Japan are ending duty-free treatment for low-value e-commerce parcels, while Brazil has just reopened its door. For carriers and platforms, the question is no longer whether a small parcel pays, but who declares it, on what data and from which warehouse.
End of de minimisEU customs reformTrade policy · North AmericaAmerica charges every parcel and puts North America's trade pact on a yearly leash
Washington has written the end of de minimis into customs law, rebuilt its tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling and refused to renew the USMCA. Parcels now clear as full imports, flows inside North America have become one-sided, and margin is moving to whoever holds the broker licence and local stock.
USMCA leashEnd of de minimisSources
- Seeking positive agenda items, Lula signs end of the 'blusinhas tax' · Poder360
- Without the 'blouse tax', international purchases rise 74% in August · Poder360
- Mexico will raise tariffs in 2026: which Asian products go up · N+ (Nmas)
- One year of the 33.5% rate on parcel imports: what has changed in e-commerce · T21 / TyT
- Contentious EU-Mercosur trade deal takes provisional effect · Euronews
- US confirms new 25% tariff on Brazil · Exame
- VAT on goods bought abroad for up to US$500: first declaration period results · Servicio de Impuestos Internos (SII), Chile
- By decree, the courier regime is modified and rules change for Shein, Temu and Amazon purchases · iProfesional
- ARCA changed the international purchases regime and raised the cap to US$3,000 · iProfesional
- End of the 'blouse tax' on purchases up to US$50 is now law · Agência Câmara de Notícias
- What changes after Congress approves the end of the 'blouse tax' · CNN Brasil
- Tax reform: what changes in 2027 with CBS and IBS · Contábeis
- The Shein and Temu effect: courier imports into Argentina neared a record in May · Bloomberg Línea
- MercadoLibre, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · MercadoLibre / Business Wire
- Correios close first half of 2026 with R$5.6 billion loss · Metrópoles
- End of the 'blouse tax' will have a modest impact on Correios' accounts · CNN Brasil