America charges every parcel and puts North America's trade pact on a yearly leash
Washington has written the end of de minimis into customs law, rebuilt its tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling and refused to renew the USMCA. Parcels now clear as full imports, flows inside North America have become one-sided, and margin is moving to whoever holds the broker licence and local stock.
30 September 2026 · 13 min read · 36 sources · Jalal Boucheikha
Key points
CBP suspended the $800 de minimis exemption for all modes in June and July 2026, and statute repeals it from 1 July 2027.
Foreign posts can no longer file for mail: only the buyer, owner or their designated licensed broker can use the new postal informal entry up to $2,500.
After the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, Washington moved to Section 122, then to Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5%, plus a 50% Section 338 duty on some Canadian goods.
The USMCA was not renewed on 1 July: it stays in force but now faces a review every year, with cars and Chinese content at the centre.
Chinese volume into the United States has recovered by changing format, from direct air parcels to bulk imports and local fulfilment.
Briefings are published in English first. Translated editions are rolling out.
Context: every parcel is now an import
United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) closed the last gaps in June. Two interim final rules suspended the $800 de minimis exemption indefinitely for all transport modes: from 24 June for express, courier and freight, and from 24 July for international mail. Mail valued at $2,500 or less now moves through a new postal informal entry process. Only the owner or purchaser of the goods, or a licensed customs broker designated by the owner, purchaser or consignee, may file. Foreign postal operators, which acted as qualified parties under the 2025 interim regime, are no longer eligible filers.123
Filers must hold a continuous customs bond, report each item with a 10-digit tariff classification, country of origin and value, and pay duties through Pay.gov by the seventh day of the month after arrival. Compliance with partner government agency requirements is due from 22 October 2026. An electronic version, Entry Type 13, entered testing in CBP's customs platform on 22 September. Behind the rules sits statute: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act repeals the commercial de minimis exception from 1 July 2027, so restoring it would need a new act of Congress.1345
The tariffs applied to those parcels have been rebuilt on new legal foundations. On 20 February the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). A 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act filled the gap from 24 February to 24 July. It was replaced on 24 July by Section 301 tariffs, justified by weak enforcement of forced-labour import bans, covering some 60 economies and 99.4% of American imports. The rate is 10% for countries such as Canada and Mexico and 12.5% for China, Vietnam and most others. Goods already under Section 232 steel, aluminium or vehicle tariffs are exempt. Law firm analyses report that goods qualifying for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are also exempt; the Federal Register notice summary we consulted does not state this explicitly.678
Canada then received its own instrument. Under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a 50% duty applies from 22 August to about $20 billion of Canadian goods across 554 tariff lines, including alcohol, dairy, maple syrup, plywood and ice hockey equipment. USMCA-qualifying goods are not exempt. Ottawa answered with counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on C$27.6 billion of American goods from 8 September, and a C$7.5 billion support package.910
The regional pact itself is now on a short leash. At the six-year joint review on 1 July, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) said Washington did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. Mexico and Canada both supported a 16-year extension. The agreement stays in force to 2036, but the parties must now review it every year. Washington and Mexico have held negotiating rounds since May. The main sticking point is cars: the United States wants 82% regional content, including 50% American content, against 75% today. Canada has only held preliminary talks. Ambassador Jamieson Greer has signalled interim arrangements by the end of the year, though talks may run into 2027.121113
With China, Washington has chosen a truce that leaves parcels untouched. On 24 September the two sides extended their arrangement from 10 November to 10 January 2027. On 29 September they announced a $60 billion package, $30 billion each way, returning about 90% of listed products to most-favoured-nation (MFN) rates. The American list includes typical e-commerce goods such as bed linen, car seats and holiday decorations. Nothing in the package reopens duty-free entry for low-value shipments.1415
Canada and Mexico keep their own low-value regimes, and both still favour North American origin. For courier shipments from the United States or Mexico, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) waives duty and tax up to C$40 and duty up to C$150; for other origins, and for all postal shipments, relief stops at C$20. Mexico raised its simplified courier rate for goods from countries without a trade agreement from 19% to 33.5% in August 2025, while shipments fulfilled from the United States under $50 remain duty and tax free. From 1 January 2026 it added tariffs of 5% to 50% on goods from non-agreement countries, mainly China, with 35% on clothing and footwear. The USMCA text still lists an $800 American threshold that Washington no longer applies.1617195
When the exemption ended for all origins in August 2025, the Universal Postal Union (UPU) recorded an 81% fall in postal traffic to the United States within a week, and 88 postal operators suspended some or all services. By mid-December 2025 CBP reported more than $1 billion in duties collected and an 82% rise in seizures. Yet the Chinese flow did not disappear. UPS returned to year-on-year volume growth on the China to United States lane in May 2026, and consultant Aevean found Chinese e-commerce air exports to North America roughly flat in August while volumes to Europe fell 40%. Clearance has become a priced service: FedEx raised its American disbursement fee for advancing duties from a $15 minimum and 2% to $17.50 and 2.5% from 20 July.2322212025
The political clock is the 3 November midterms. A Cato Institute and Morning Consult survey of 4,150 registered voters in August found 75% saying tariffs will matter to their vote and 74% believing tariffs raised their prices.27
Points of view
Washington: White House, USTR and CBP
Tariffs are leverage and every parcel is a declaration.
USTR frames the USMCA refusal as a way to address the agreement's shortcomings and America's trade deficits with its two neighbours, while keeping the pact in force. The Section 301 action rests on the argument that partners fail to enforce forced-labour import bans. CBP presents the end of de minimis as revenue and border protection: $1 billion collected, an 82% rise in seizures of unsafe goods, and, it says, no processing delays.12822
Ottawa: Carney government and Canadian small business
Retaliate in proportion, defend the pact, cushion exporters.
Canada backed a 16-year extension and wants American sectoral tariffs addressed first. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne put it bluntly: "When the United States asked too much and offered too little, we chose to stand up for Canadians." The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) says nearly a third of exporters expect harm from losing de minimis, and 18% of small exporters would not stay viable if tariffs last three months or more.11102829
Mexico City: Sheinbaum government and business
Keep the pact by aligning against Asian imports, but not on American terms for cars.
Mexico supported extension and has moved towards Washington on economic security: higher courier rates and 2026 tariffs on non-agreement origins, tighter export controls, and, according to Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, most of USTR's 54 initial concerns crossed off. It refuses a country-specific American content rule for vehicles and makes further progress conditional on tariff relief.111319
Platforms and carriers: PDD, UPS, FedEx, Canada Post
Pay the duty, move the stock, charge for clearance.
PDD's co-chief executive Chen Lei expects a considerable impact on parts of the business, and the group is onboarding local merchants and investing in local warehousing. UPS is back to growth on the China lane. FedEx is repricing the service of advancing duties. Canada Post routes all American-bound parcels through declarations generated by Zonos, which charges a remittance fee plus a 10% service charge.26212524
Economists and free-trade think tanks
A regressive consumption tax with a large administrative bill.
Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal found that the poorest zip codes spent 73% of their direct import purchases on de minimis goods against 52% in the richest, and estimated the welfare cost of repeal at $10.9 to $13 billion a year. Preliminary work by David Argente and co-authors on Costa Rica suggests local retailers raised margins when the exemption went.3132
They disagree on what the parcel is. Washington treats it as a tariff leak and a security risk. Ottawa and Mexico City treat de minimis as a bargaining chip inside a wider fight over cars, steel and dairy, and neither has put it on the published USMCA agenda. Carriers treat clearance as a new revenue line. Economists treat the end of de minimis as a tax on lower-income households. Our reading: each is partly right, and the policy will not reverse on economic arguments alone while the statute stands.5102531
Reading it through doctrines
Economic nationalism (Hamilton, List, Lighthizer's No Trade Is Free)
How it reads the situation
This school treats persistent deficits as a loss of industrial capacity and sees tariffs as a tool to rebuild it. Robert Lighthizer, who negotiated the USMCA, argues that trade must be judged by outcomes for American workers, not by efficiency. From this angle the annual review is leverage, and de minimis was a channel that let imports escape the tariff wall.
What it means for the parcel
Expect the duty-paid parcel to be permanent under any administration that shares this view. Plan networks on the assumption that clearance cost is structural, not temporary.34
Liberal institutionalism and the rules-based trade order (Keohane, WTO)
How it reads the situation
Institutions matter because they lower transaction costs and make commitments credible. Replacing a 16-year treaty horizon with yearly reviews, and emergency tariffs with a sequence of executive instruments, raises the uncertainty premium on every cross-border investment. Free-trade economists add that low-value relief is trade facilitation, not a loophole.
What it means for the parcel
Uncertainty is priced as shorter contracts, surcharges and less investment in cross-border capacity. Carriers should expect shippers to demand flexible terms rather than long volume commitments.3311
Geoeconomics (Luttwak; Blackwill and Harris)
How it reads the situation
Geoeconomics is the use of economic instruments for geopolitical ends. Washington is using market access to push Mexico and Canada to screen out Chinese content, through rules of origin and economic-security chapters, while negotiating a separate truce with Beijing.
What it means for the parcel
Origin, not destination, sets the cost of a parcel. Proof of origin and supplier data become commercial assets for anyone moving goods within North America.3613
Weaponised interdependence (Farrell and Newman)
How it reads the situation
States that control the hubs of global networks can use them to watch and to block. Requiring a 10-digit classification, origin, value and a named filer for every item turns the parcel stream into a data network that American customs can read and filter.
What it means for the parcel
Access to the American consumer now depends on data quality. Operators that cannot supply item-level data at induction will lose volume to those that can.351
Why it lands on the parcel: the cost moved from duty to data
Under de minimis, a low-value parcel crossed on manifest data alone. Now every item needs classification, origin, value, a bond and a filer. The cost has two parts: an ad valorem duty, and a fixed cost per shipment for brokerage, data and duty advancement. Our reading is that the fixed part hurts more at low order values. A carrier that advances duty on a small order can charge a minimum fee, such as FedEx's $17.50, that exceeds the duty itself.1325
The postal channel changes most. Foreign posts can no longer file, so the sender or a broker must. In practice this means delivered duty paid (DDP) shipping through technology intermediaries, as Canada Post does with Zonos. Posts become transport providers, and the margin on clearance goes to whoever holds the broker licence and the customer data. The 22 October compliance date for agency requirements falls just before peak season, when volumes are highest and error rates cost most.32414
Commercially, the likely effect is higher minimum order values for cross-border sellers, consolidation of low-value flows into fewer, larger shipments, and pricing of clearance as a separate line on carrier invoices.2520
North America inside the wall: asymmetry, Section 338 and the Mexican filter
Low-value relief inside North America is now one-way. Canada and Mexico still give American-origin courier parcels treaty thresholds; Washington gives Canadian and Mexican parcels none. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business notes that postal shipments now pay duty even when the goods qualify under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), while couriers can still claim the preference.16528
Section 338 hits the categories small Canadian online sellers ship: maple syrup, alcohol, hockey equipment. Because USMCA-qualifying goods are not exempt, a 50% duty applies on top of clearance costs. Statistics cited by The Hub show 542 fewer Canadian enterprises exported to the United States in 2025, the largest drop since 2020, concentrated among small firms. Our reading: Canadian direct-to-consumer sellers will either move stock into American third-party logistics (3PL) warehouses or refocus on domestic and non-American markets.930
Mexico has become a filter against Asian parcels. A year after the 33.5% rate, logistics players describe a shift from direct air parcels to containers cleared in Mexico and fulfilled locally, with sellers concentrating on the 20% of stock-keeping units (SKU) that generate 80% of sales. American sellers shipping south face inconsistent treatment: some ports honour the sub-$50 exemption for American-fulfilled goods, others charge 33.5% when the goods are Chinese-made. The growth business in Mexico is fulfilment and domestic last mile, not cross-border parcels.1817
The Chinese flow: rerouted, not stopped
China-origin goods now pay 12.5% under Section 301 on top of normal duties, and the truce does not change that for parcels. Yet transpacific volumes recovered from May. Our reading is that the flow has changed format: platforms ship more in bulk to American warehouses and sell through local merchants, which PDD confirms as its strategy. The parcel still reaches the American consumer, but increasingly as a domestic shipment.8212026
The midterms matter less than they seem for de minimis itself. Even a Democratic House could not restore the exemption before the statutory repeal takes effect without the president's signature. Their influence is more likely on tariff authority and the USMCA review.527
Key figures
$2,500Ceiling for CBP's postal informal entry process for mail, in force since 24 July 2026
12.5%Section 301 tariff on Chinese goods since 24 July 2026, before normal duties
50%Section 338 duty on about $20 billion of Canadian goods since 22 August 2026, with no USMCA exemption
C$27.6bnAmerican goods hit by Canadian counter-tariffs from 8 September 2026
The USMCA stays in force under yearly review, with an interim arrangement with Mexico in late 2026 or early 2027. Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs remain, and every parcel entering the United States is fully entered. Volume keeps shifting from cross-border parcels to bulk imports and local fulfilment.
Signal to watch Publication of an interim US-Mexico text, and Entry Type 13 moving from test to standard process.
Upside: a North American reset
Possible
After the midterms, Washington trades tariff relief for Mexican and Canadian concessions on cars, steel and Chinese content. Section 338 is withdrawn and the review ends with a multi-year extension. Parcels still pay duty, but North American origin carries lower rates and less friction.
Signal to watch Withdrawal of the Section 338 proclamations, or a trilateral statement on extending the USMCA.
Downside: escalation on two fronts
Less likely
US-Mexico talks stall over car content, Washington threatens withdrawal, and the China truce lapses on 10 January. Section 338 is widened and Canada broadens counter-measures. Carriers face sudden rate changes on inbound bulk and parcel flows.
Signal to watch A formal American notice of withdrawal from the USMCA, or no truce extension by early January.
Watchlist
22 Oct 2026United States: compliance date for partner government agency requirements under the postal informal entry rule
3 Nov 2026United States midterm elections
End 2026Target for interim USMCA arrangements with Mexico and Canada, per USTR
10 Jan 2027Expiry of the extended Washington-Beijing trade truce
1 Jul 2027Statutory repeal of the de minimis exemption takes effect; next annual USMCA joint review due
Decisions
For the C-suite
Price United States inbound as a landed cost per item: build duty, broker fee and duty-advancement fees into DDP quotes, and set minimum order values where the fixed clearance cost exceeds the margin.
Secure a filing position before 22 October: become, buy or partner with a licensed customs broker that holds a continuous bond, and join the Entry Type 13 test to avoid monthly spreadsheet filing at peak.
Make item-level data a condition of induction: refuse or surcharge parcels without a 10-digit classification, origin and verified value, and pass the data cost to the shipper in the contract.
For Canadian shippers, move CUSMA-eligible goods from postal to courier where the preference can be claimed, and move Section 338 categories into American 3PL stock.
In Mexico, sell container clearance plus local fulfilment and last mile, and audit origin documents on United States-fulfilled flows to keep the sub-$50 exemption.
Shorten contract tenors and add change-of-law clauses tied to 10 January 2027 and the 1 July 2027 USMCA review, so tariff changes flow through to price.
Bottom line
In North America the parcel now pays at the border in data as much as in duty, so margin moves to whoever files the entry and holds stock inside the wall.
Acronyms in this article
CBPU.S. Customs and Border Protection
The US agency that clears goods entering the United States and collects duties.
IEEPAInternational Emergency Economic Powers Act
A United States emergency law used for tariffs until the Supreme Court struck those tariffs down in February 2026.
USMCAUnited States–Mexico–Canada Agreement
The North American free trade agreement that replaced NAFTA in 2020.
USTROffice of the United States Trade Representative
The United States agency that negotiates trade deals and runs Section 301 investigations.
MFNMost-favoured-nation
The standard, non-discriminatory tariff rate a WTO member applies to imports from other members.
CBSACanada Border Services Agency
Canada's customs and border authority, which sets and applies low-value shipment thresholds.
UPUUniversal Postal Union
UN agency that sets the rules for international mail exchanges between postal operators.
CFIBCanadian Federation of Independent Business
Canada's largest association of small and medium-sized businesses.
DDPDelivered Duty Paid
The seller pays duties and taxes upfront: the customer pays nothing at delivery.
CUSMACanada-United States-Mexico Agreement
Canada's name for the USMCA, the North American free trade agreement in force since July 2020.
3PLThird-party logistics provider
A company that runs warehousing, fulfilment and shipping on behalf of sellers or platforms.
SKUStock Keeping Unit
A unique reference for one product variant, used to track stock and price.