Oceania keeps its A$1,000 door open while fuel and Washington raise the parcel bill
Australia and New Zealand still let small parcels in duty-free and collect GST at checkout, as the rest of the rich world closes the gap. Their parcel costs are moving elsewhere: on diesel and jet fuel, on a 12.5% American tariff, and in posts that are becoming parcel companies.
2 October 2026 · 13 min read · 38 sources · Jalal Boucheikha
Key points
Most goods worth A$1,000 or less still enter Australia with no duty at the border; GST has been collected at checkout by platforms and merchants since 2018, and New Zealand has done the same since December 2019.
New Zealand added a cost-recovery levy of NZ$2.21 per air consignment from 1 April 2026, and we found no announced review of Australia's threshold.
Fuel moved costs most: Australia Post's domestic contract surcharge rose from 4.8% to as high as 19.5% before falling to 12.3% in July, and Australia held only 29 days of jet fuel on 22 September.
Australia Post lost A$107.6 million on an underlying basis in 2025-26 as letters fell 14.7%, while parcel volumes rose 5.3% and lockers grew 64.3%.
Australian and New Zealand goods pay a 12.5% Section 301 tariff in the United States on top of normal duties, and senders face a new postal entry process from 22 October.
Oceania keeps its A$1,000 door open while fuel and Washington raise the parcel bill · Neural voice
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Context: the last wide-open door
Australia and New Zealand are now the largest rich markets where a small parcel from abroad still crosses the border without customs duty. In Australia, the Australian Border Force (ABF) says that for most goods worth A$1,000 or less there are no duties, taxes or charges to pay at the border; above that value, every duty and an import processing charge apply. New Zealand uses the same NZ$1,000 line for its point-of-sale tax regime. Washington, Brussels and London have all moved, or are moving, to tax the low-value parcel. Canberra and Wellington have not touched the threshold.323
What both countries did instead was move consumption tax to the checkout. Since 1 July 2018 the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has required overseas merchants, electronic distribution platform (EDP) operators and redeliverers to charge Australia's goods and services tax (GST) on low value imported goods at the point of sale, as a domestic shop would. New Zealand followed on 1 December 2019: offshore businesses selling more than NZ$60,000 of low-value goods a year collect GST and pay it to Inland Revenue, while Customs still collects at the border above NZ$1,000.1223
By its own yardstick, the Australian model worked. The Board of Taxation found that collections reached A$360 million in 2018-19 against A$70 million budgeted, and A$400 million in 2019-20 against A$100 million. It called the obligation on platforms highly efficient because a small number of entities capture a large share of the tax. Our reading: that success is one reason pressure to go further has stayed lower than in Europe.4
The flow is large and still growing. Australia Post's eCommerce Report 2026 puts online spending in 2025 at A$82.6 billion, up 14%, across 9.8 million households, with A$18.9 billion, or 23%, spent on pure online marketplaces. In New Zealand, Customs data quoted in April showed low-value import packages rising from 7.8 million in 2017-18 to 24 million in 2023-24, a threefold increase.1021
Around this open door, three pressures arrived in 2026. The war involving Iran pushed up fuel costs in a region that imports most of its refined fuel. The United States replaced its expiring Section 122 surcharge with Section 301 tariffs of 12.5% on both countries, on top of normal duties. And both posts are finishing their turn from letters to parcels.26299517
Points of view
Canberra: Treasury, the ATO and the ABF
The tax is collected; the threshold is not the problem.
Australia's answer to cheap imports has been tax collection at checkout rather than a border duty, and the Board of Taxation's review found revenue well above forecasts and platforms complying. We found no announced review of the A$1,000 threshold. The May 2026 Budget spent its political capital on fuel: a A$14.8 billion fuel resilience package, including a A$3.2 billion government-controlled reserve of about 1 billion litres of diesel and jet fuel.1427
Wellington: Customs and the coalition government
Make importers pay for the border, without calling it protection.
From 1 April 2026 New Zealand Customs charges a low-value goods levy per declaration or cargo report for consignments of NZ$1,000 or less, NZ$2.21 plus GST by air and NZ$2.09 by sea. Customs says the previous charges were unfair to industry and that taxpayers were subsidising offshore e-commerce platforms. Customs Minister Casey Costello asked: “what about the New Zealand retail businesses that are paying GST, paying the cost of running a business?”2021
The ACCC
Watch the marketplaces on safety and fairness, not on tariffs.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) concluded in its final digital platforms report that no single general online retail marketplace is dominant in Australia, while noting that 3.8 million Australians bought from Temu and 2 million from Shein in the year to August 2024. In February 2026 it put online marketplaces among its priorities; Shein and Temu have not signed its voluntary product safety pledge, which AliExpress, Amazon and eBay have. Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said: “We're very concerned to see the proliferation of unsafe products in online marketplaces.”371112
Australia Post
From letters to a digital-first parcels network.
Australia Post made a pre-tax profit of A$31.8 million in 2025-26 but an underlying loss of A$107.6 million once A$139.4 million of property gains are removed. Letters lost A$63.2 million as volumes fell 14.7% to 1.42 billion. Group chief executive Paul Graham described the change as a move “from letters to a digital-first parcels network”.56
NZ Post
Back in profit, but the letter base keeps shrinking.
NZ Post returned to a net profit of NZ$17 million on revenue of NZ$1,267 million and delivered 85 million parcels and 134 million letters. Chief executive David Walsh has explained the price pressure plainly: “With a largely fixed cost national network, this drop in volume significantly increases the cost to deliver each mail item.” A standard letter now costs NZ$3.60.1718
Platforms: Temu and Amazon
Go local, and compete on speed.
Temu opened a Local Seller Program in Australia in March 2025 and says 75% of sellers in its 2026 survey see it as an important additional channel or their main one. Amazon runs eight fulfilment centres and 12 logistics sites, is investing A$1.6 billion between 2024 and 2027 in five new sites, and since August offers overnight delivery in Sydney and Melbourne. Its director of Prime, Arno Lenior, called it “a step change in what Australians can expect from online delivery.”1415
Local retailers in Australia and New Zealand
A level playing field, enforced.
The Australian Retail Council, formed by the merger of the Australian Retailers Association and the National Retail Association, asked in its pre-budget submission for regulators to prioritise compliance checks on ultra-low-cost offshore retailers, covering consumer law, privacy, modern slavery reporting and GST. In New Zealand, where offshore online spending in department and variety stores rose 33% in 2024, Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young describes “a two-speed economy”.132221
Consumers
Price first.
Australian households are buying more often in smaller baskets: the average fell to A$96, A$10 lower than in 2020. An RMIT University study of Australian millennials who buy ultra-fast fashion found affordability was the first driver; one participant said: “You can get five things for the price of one at other places.”1032
Our reading: the disagreement in Oceania is narrower than in Europe. Nobody with power in Canberra or Wellington is proposing to tax every small parcel. The argument is about enforcement (product safety, GST compliance, who pays for the border), and the governments have answered with checkout tax and cost recovery rather than duty. That keeps the direct cross-border parcel viable here for longer than in any other rich market, while speed and fuel decide who wins the domestic leg.1201213
Reading it through doctrines
Sea power and chokepoints (Alfred Thayer Mahan)
How it reads the situation
Mahan argued that national power rests on control of sea lanes, merchant shipping and bases. Australia and New Zealand sit at the far end of every lane they depend on: an Australian Institute of International Affairs analysis notes that imports met 80.8% of Australia's refined petroleum consumption in 2024-25.
What it means for the parcel
Fuel, not duty, is the variable most likely to move a parcel's cost in Oceania: surcharges reprice every domestic and inbound delivery within weeks, and reserves only buy time.3329
Hedging and multi-alignment (Hugh White and the Australian debate)
How it reads the situation
Hugh White argued in The China Choice that Asia's order would have to make room for China's power, and Australian policy since has tried to avoid a binary choice. Concluding the free trade agreement with the European Union in March 2026, while paying Washington's 12.5% Section 301 rate and keeping trade open to Chinese platforms, is hedging in practice.
What it means for the parcel
Expect Canberra and Wellington to keep their borders open to Chinese platforms while diversifying export markets: more EU-bound volume over time, and steady inbound flows from China.34309
Economic nationalism (Alexander Hamilton's Report on Manufactures)
How it reads the situation
Hamilton's 1791 report made the case for using tariffs to build domestic industry. Washington's 2026 Section 301 tariffs follow that tradition and apply to close allies: Australia and New Zealand pay 12.5% on top of the most-favoured-nation (MFN) duty, without the cap given to the EU and Japan.
What it means for the parcel
Every Australian or New Zealand parcel to an American consumer now carries duty, a 10-digit tariff code and a collection fee. Small exporters to the United States pay the most per item.3597
Liberal institutionalism and the rules-based trade order (Robert Keohane)
How it reads the situation
Keohane showed that states keep cooperating through institutions after the dominant power stops leading. Australia's checkout GST model, which New Zealand copied, and its new trade pact with the EU, are wagers that rules and data, not walls, are the better defence.
What it means for the parcel
Collection at the platform, not at the border, keeps clearance fast: the parcel stays cheap to process, and the burden sits on marketplaces' tax and data teams.3612330
Why it lands on the parcel: an open border, a costly road
The mechanism here is the reverse of Europe's. In the EU and the United States, the direct cross-border parcel got dearer at the border. In Australia and New Zealand, the border cost barely moved: GST was already collected at checkout, and New Zealand's new levy is NZ$2.21 per air consignment. The cost that moved in 2026 was transport.3209
Australia Post's surcharges show how fast. It raised the fuel surcharge on domestic parcel contracts from 4.8% to 12% from 23 April, and on StarTrack Express and Premium from 15.5% to 22.7%, to reflect “the need to manage increased operating costs amid a volatile fuel environment”. A later increase took the parcel surcharge to 19.5%; from 1 July, after fuel prices stabilised, it was cut to 12.3%. Canberra halved fuel excise, by 26.3 cents a litre, and set the heavy vehicle road user charge to zero for three months from 1 April, at a cost of A$2.55 billion.242526
On 22 September the government reported 42 days of petrol, 32 days of diesel and 29 days of jet fuel. The Budget expands the minimum stockholding obligation by 10 days for diesel, jet fuel and petrol. Our reading: in a market where most inbound cross-border parcels fly and every domestic one rides on diesel, the fuel line on the invoice now matters more to landed cost than the tax line.2827
Two posts become parcel companies
Australia Post's 2025-26 numbers describe the turn. Parcel and services revenue rose 4.8% to A$8.01 billion and parcel volumes 5.3%, while letters fell to 1.42 billion. The group invested A$413.3 million, expanded its parcel locker network by 64.3% to 1,510 banks, bought the delivery technology platform Rendr and partnered with Vinted on re-commerce. Letters have been delivered every second business day in most of the country since 2024.5638
In Australia Post's own survey, 32% of shoppers say they would switch retailers for out-of-home collection such as parcel lockers. NZ Post has completed an automated parcel processing network, handled 17.1 million parcels in the November and December peak and a record 575,000 in a single day.1017
New Zealand's letter decline is even steeper, and the regulator has set a trigger. The 2025 Deed of Understanding allows deliveries of two days a week to most addresses, three years after the Deed or earlier if mail volumes fall below 120 million items a year. NZ Post delivered 134 million letters in 2025-26, after 158 million the year before. Our reading: at the present rate of decline the trigger could be reached well before the three years run out, which would release more of the network for parcels.191718
Competition is moving to speed. Amazon says 72% of Australians can get next-day delivery or faster, and is building a A$750 million robotic fulfilment centre at Logan, south of Brisbane, to open in 2028 and process more than 125 million packages a year. Our reading: the more volume moves to stock held in the country, the more the parcel becomes a domestic product, priced on fuel, labour and locker density rather than customs.1516
The trans-Pacific lane after de minimis
Outbound, Oceania's sellers met the American wall first. Australia Post suspended parcels to the United States on 26 August 2025, as Washington ended the US$800 exemption, and resumed on 25 September with Zonos collecting duty before goods enter the country. NZ Post resumed most services on 12 September 2025 and offers delivered duty paid (DDP) to account customers.831
The rules have tightened since. From 24 July 2026 US customs accepts only 10-digit harmonised system (HS) codes on Australia Post parcels, and the senders' duty bill carries a Zonos handling fee of 10% of duties plus an admin fee. From 22 October, certain goods must clear through a new process, Informal Entry Type 13. On top sits the 12.5% Section 301 tariff on Australian and New Zealand goods, applied in addition to normal duties.79
Our reading: for a wine accessory or a merino jumper sold by a small brand, the duty, the fee and the data work now add a fixed cost to every parcel, which pushes sellers either to consolidate into bulk shipments and fulfil from inside the United States, or to look to Europe, where the new free trade agreement will eliminate EU tariffs on 97.8% of Australian goods on entry into force, expected late 2027.7930
Who offers what: the solution landscape
Solution landscape
US: end of de minimis and new postal entry rules
Australian and New Zealand senders to the United States now need duty paid before arrival, 10-digit codes and, from 22 October, a new postal entry type, a service that several intermediaries sell to posts and shippers; Australia Post itself relies on one of them.
What the rule requires CBP's rule published on 24 June 2026 suspends de minimis for mail indefinitely and creates a postal informal entry that only the owner, the purchaser or a licensed customs broker may file, backed by a single transaction or continuous bond; requirements for partner agency data and Chapter 98-99 duties apply from 22 October 2026. Foreign posts can no longer file themselves, so duty on postal items must be paid by the carrier or by a qualified party acting in its place, and CBP's list of such parties had reached 39 by January 2026.
BoxC
E-commerce shipment and customs platform
Approved by CBP in September 2025 as a qualified party to calculate, file and pay duty on postal shipments, and listed by the UPU among providers implementing its postal DDP solution.
Describes itself as an e-commerce shipment management platform for retailers importing across borders.
DDP, duty and tax calculation and customs data platform
Offers a modular DDP platform covering classification, duty and tax calculation, customs clearance and parcel routing; the UPU lists it among providers implementing its postal DDP solution with a qualified-party partner.
Serves posts, carriers, marketplaces, retailers and forwarders, and says clients can keep their existing providers and pricing while connecting through its platform.
Provides AI-assisted declaration filing, HS classification, duty calculation and a parcel clearance service for US shipments; the UPU lists it among providers implementing its postal DDP solution, with JamesCB as qualified party.
Positions itself as an all-in-one customs automation tool for customs agents, traders, carriers, postal operators and online sellers.
Was among the first parties CBP qualified to pay duty on international postal shipments in lieu of the carrier, and is listed by the UPU among providers implementing its postal DDP solution.
Works on the postal channel as a qualified party between foreign posts and CBP.
Calculates duty at origin for posts, offers a landed cost guarantee and, after acquiring the licensed US broker Evolve Trade Services, files the entries now required for postal shipments; it was the first provider integrated into the UPU DDP solution.
Works directly with postal operators, including Canada Post, and with shippers, and says it contacts each post with a post-specific cutover date.
Still moving The Entry Type 13 test and the 22 October compliance date will show whether postal informal entry can scale at peak, and CBP keeps adding names to its qualified party list.
At least three providers per need, in alphabetical order. Information, not endorsement.
Base case: the door stays open, the parcel goes domestic
Most likely
Canberra and Wellington keep the A$1,000 and NZ$1,000 lines, enforcement focuses on safety and GST compliance, and platforms keep adding local sellers and stock. Domestic parcel volumes keep growing faster than inbound cross-border ones, and lockers and speed decide share.
Signal to watch No threshold measure in Australia's next economic statement, and ACCC enforcement action on marketplace product safety instead.
Upside for local retailers: a cost-recovery charge in Australia
Possible
Following New Zealand, Canberra introduces a per-consignment charge on low-value imports to recover border costs, without lowering the duty threshold. Direct parcels become a little dearer; platforms move more volume into bulk imports.
Signal to watch A Treasury or Home Affairs consultation on cost recovery for low-value cargo.
Downside: a second fuel shock
Less likely
Renewed disruption in the Gulf pushes jet fuel and diesel prices back up before the new reserve is filled, surcharges return to second-quarter levels, and peak season air capacity into Australia tightens.
Signal to watch Australia Post or StarTrack announcing a surcharge increase, or jet fuel cover falling below the levels of September.
Watchlist
22 Oct 2026United States: new Informal Entry Type 13 clearance process for certain goods, affecting Australian and New Zealand senders
Late 2026 or early 2027Expected signature of the Australia-EU free trade agreement
Late 2027Expected entry into force of the Australia-EU free trade agreement
2028Planned opening of Amazon's A$750 million robotic fulfilment centre at Logan, Queensland
By Sep 2028New Zealand: two delivery days a week for most addresses under the 2025 Deed, or earlier if mail falls below 120 million items a year
Decisions
For executives and senior leaders
Treat fuel as the main pricing risk in Oceania: index domestic and inbound contracts to a published fuel surcharge with a cap and a floor, and review them monthly until Australia's expanded stocks are in place.
Price New Zealand inbound to include the NZ$2.21 air and NZ$2.09 sea levy per consignment, and use consolidation to spread it across more items where the rules allow.
For Australian and New Zealand sellers to the United States, ship DDP with 10-digit HS codes and item-level origin, prepare for Informal Entry Type 13 before 22 October, and test US-based stock for best-selling lines where duty and fees per parcel exceed margin.
Bid for the onshore work: bulk import clearance, local warehousing and locker-dense last mile for marketplaces building local seller bases in Australia.
Map EU demand now for Australian exporters, ahead of the free trade agreement's entry into force, and design an EU route with duty and VAT collected at checkout.
Keep compliance evidence ready for marketplace clients: GST collection, product safety and seller identity are where Australian and New Zealand regulators are focusing first.
Bottom line
Oceania's border remains the most open to the small parcel, so in 2026 the bill rises on the road and in the air, not at customs.
Acronyms in this article
ABFAustralian Border Force
Australia's border and customs agency, part of the Home Affairs portfolio, which clears imports and collects duty above the A$1,000 threshold.
ATOAustralian Taxation Office
Australia's tax authority, which administers GST, including GST on low value imported goods collected by overseas sellers and platforms.
EDPElectronic distribution platform
Australian tax term for an online marketplace that, under the 2018 rules, must collect GST on low value goods sold through it.
GSTGoods and Services Tax
Consumption tax in Australia (10%) and New Zealand (15%), similar to VAT, charged on most goods and services.
ACCCAustralian Competition and Consumer Commission
Australia's competition and consumer protection regulator, which also oversees product safety.
MFNMost-favoured-nation
The standard, non-discriminatory tariff rate a WTO member applies to imports from other members.
DDPDelivered Duty Paid
The seller pays duties and taxes upfront: the customer pays nothing at delivery.
HSHarmonized System
The international nomenclature for classifying goods in customs tariffs, maintained by the WCO; countries extend the six-digit code to eight or ten digits.