Hormuz and the fuel bill
The war between the United States and Iran that began on 28 February has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a permit regime and kept Brent above $100. The parcel pays through jet fuel, surcharges, war-risk premiums and longer detours around the Gulf gateways.
From geopolitics to the parcel
- 2026-02-28
United States and Israeli strikes on Iran started the war, and the Revolutionary Guard closed the strait to most foreign shipping within days.3233
- 2026-07
The June memorandum that ended active fighting collapsed in mid-July, when Iran declared it no longer valid and new strikes followed near the strait.3334
- 2026-07-20
Yemen's Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening the Red Sea outlet Riyadh uses to bypass Hormuz.35
- 2026-09-26
President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day roadmap to reopen the strait, and Brent rose above $107 on 28 September.3637
- 2026-03-13in force
Saudi Arabia's ports authority launched logistics corridors to reroute Gulf cargo to Red Sea ports, with rail and truck links onward.38
- 2026-04-26in force
The United States Postal Service applies an 8% temporary fuel surcharge on parcel products until 17 January 2027.39
- 2026-05in force
Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority requires prior authorisation for transits and keeps a list of banned vessels.4041
- 2026-07-15in force
Washington reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports and threatens sanctions on any entity that pays Iran for transit.3341
- 2026-08-03in force
Dubai Customs raised its duty exemption for cross-border e-commerce shipments from 300 to 1,000 dirhams to cut costs for the sector.42
- 2026-03
FedEx and UPS added Middle East surcharges and raised fuel surcharge tables, with UPS's air import surcharge reaching 34.5%.43
- 2026-06-23
FedEx reported quarterly fuel expense up 66% year on year to $1.43 billion.44
- 2026-08
Jebel Ali handled 374,000 TEU in the second quarter, a 90% fall, and DP World's profit attributable to owners fell 47.3% in the first half.4546
- 2026-08-05
Aramex posted record quarterly revenue, up 22%, selling alternative routes including land solutions and charters.47
- 2026-09
Jet fuel prices were up 116.5% year on year on 18 September, according to Baltic Exchange data.48
- ↑ Cost
Fuel surcharges pass through mechanically: the average net fuel surcharge per package rose 40% year on year in the second quarter.4349
- ↓ Speed
Gulf deliveries are slower: sea transit from China to the Middle East stretched to 35 to 45 days and Temu delivery estimates to 20 days.50
- ↑ Network
Gulf-bound cargo detours via Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Salalah and Saudi Red Sea ports at four to five times the cost of sailing to Jebel Ali.45
- ↓ Volume
In August, Middle East to Asia air cargo volumes fell 11.0% and Europe to Middle East 12.1% year on year.51
- ↑ Compliance
Any fee paid to Iran's strait authority can expose carriers and customers to United States sanctions, so Gulf routings need sanctions screening.4140
Our reading: neither Washington nor Tehran yet sees a cost high enough to move first, so a managed disruption into 2027 is likelier than a quick reopening. Fuel and conflict surcharges will outlast any ceasefire because insurers and refiners reprice with a lag, so parcel contracts should separate them from base rates.
What comes next
- 2026-10-27Last of four Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Gemini services sails via the Red Sea and Suez
- 2026-11-03United States midterm elections
- 2027-01-17End of the USPS temporary 8% fuel surcharge on parcel products
The lens behind the decisions
Companies visibly affected
Solution landscape
Read the full analysis
Hormuz in its eighth month: the parcel pays the fuel bill and the detour
The Iran war has run since 28 February, a June peace deal collapsed in July, and Washington rejected Tehran's latest offer on 26 September. With Brent above $100 and jet fuel more than doubled, surcharges, reroutes and Gulf gateways now set the price of a cross-border parcel.
Hormuz fuel billPlatforms go localTrade · North AfricaTangier, Suez and the parcel: North Africa's gateway opens as its borders tighten
Morocco's ports and free zones are drawing traffic and Chinese investment, and Suez is slowly reopening. At the same time Rabat, Cairo, Algiers and Tunis are tightening their rules on imports, so the region is getting easier to route through and harder to sell into.
North Africa gatewayHormuz fuel billSources
- 2026 Iran war ceasefire · Wikipedia
- US resumes Iran ports blockade as Gulf attacks continue: What's the latest · Al Jazeera
- Hormuz Transits Hit Three-week High, VLCC Rates Explode · USNI News
- Yemen's Houthis declare naval blockade of Saudi Arabia: What to know · Al Jazeera
- Trump rejects Iran's seven-day roadmap to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz · Al Jazeera
- Oil prices surge after Trump rejects Iran's plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz · Al Jazeera
- Saudi Arabia launches initiative to reroute Gulf cargo to Red Sea ports · Arab News
- Postal Service plans 8% fuel surcharge as Iran war raises transport costs · FreightWaves
- Iran Launches "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to Administer Hormuz Tolls · The Maritime Executive
- Strait of Hormuz Brief: 9 September 2026 · Lloyd's List Intelligence
- Dubai Raises E-Commerce Customs Duty Exemption to AED 1,000 · VATupdate
- FedEx, UPS up fuel fees, levy Middle East surcharges amid Iran war · Supply Chain Dive
- FedEx Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Results · FedEx Investor Relations
- Exclusive: Gulf's biggest port Jebel Ali waits for the war to end · Semafor
- DP World 1H 2026 Interim Results Announcement · DP World (Nasdaq Dubai filing)
- Aramex reports record quarterly revenue performance with highest freight forwarding revenue in its history · Zawya (Aramex press release)
- Airfreight rates strong as peak season approaches · Air Cargo News
- Fuel surcharges wallop FedEx, UPS shippers as Amazon looms · Supply Chain Dive
- UAE residents still face up to 3-week delays on overseas shopping orders · Gulf News
- Air Cargo Demand Grows 4.4% in August · IATA