North America's yearly leash
Washington treats access to its market as leverage over its neighbours, pushing Mexico and Canada to screen out Chinese content and give ground on cars, dairy and steel. Refusing to renew the USMCA and taxing Canadian goods under a 1930 statute keep both partners on a short, annual leash.
From geopolitics to the parcel
- 2026-07-01
At the six-year joint review, Washington declined to renew the USMCA, which stays in force but now faces a review every year.7677
- 2026-07
Cars are the main sticking point: the United States wants 82% regional content, including 50% American content, against 75% today.78
- 2026-09
A survey of registered voters found 75% saying tariffs will matter to their vote in the midterms.79
- 2025-08in force
Mexico raised its simplified courier rate for goods from non-treaty countries from 19% to 33.5%.80
- 2026-01-01in force
Mexico added tariffs of 5% to 50% on goods from countries without a trade agreement, mainly China, with 35% on clothing and footwear.81
- 2026-07-24in force
A 10% Section 301 tariff applies to Canada and Mexico; law firms report USMCA-qualifying goods exempt, which the Federal Register summary does not state.5952
- 2026-08-22in force
A 50% Section 338 duty applies to about $20 billion of Canadian goods across 554 tariff lines, with no USMCA exemption.82
- 2026-09-08in force
Canada answered with counter-tariffs on C$27.6 billion of American goods and a C$7.5 billion support package.83
- 2026-04
542 fewer Canadian enterprises exported to the United States in 2025, the largest drop since 2020, concentrated among small firms.84
- 2026-08
A year after the 33.5% rate, Mexican logistics players describe a shift from direct air parcels to containers cleared and fulfilled locally.85
- 2026-09
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business says 18% of small exporters would not stay viable if tariffs last three months or more.86
- ↑ Cost
Canadian maple syrup, alcohol and hockey equipment sent to American buyers pay a 50% duty on top of clearance costs.82
- ↑ Compliance
Postal shipments into the United States pay duty even when goods qualify under the trade agreement, while couriers can still claim the preference.87
- ↓ Volume
Fewer small Canadian firms ship to the United States, and Asian direct parcels into Mexico are giving way to containers.8485
- ↑ Network
In Mexico the growth business is fulfilment and domestic last mile, not cross-border parcels.85
Our reading: an annual review turns every July into a renegotiation, so cross-border parcel contracts inside North America need change-of-law clauses rather than multi-year price commitments. Low-value relief inside the region is now one-way, which pushes Canadian and Mexican sellers towards stock held inside the United States.
What comes next
- 2026-11-03United States midterm elections
- 2027-07-01Next annual USMCA joint review; statutory repeal of the US de minimis exemption
The lens behind the decisions
Companies visibly affected
Solution landscape
Read the full analysis
America charges every parcel and puts North America's trade pact on a yearly leash
Washington has written the end of de minimis into customs law, rebuilt its tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling and refused to renew the USMCA. Parcels now clear as full imports, flows inside North America have become one-sided, and margin is moving to whoever holds the broker licence and local stock.
USMCA leashEnd of de minimisGeopolitics · Latin AmericaBrazil scraps its small-parcel tax before the vote. Latin America splits on the parcel
Brazil has zeroed the federal tax on imports up to US$50 and turned it into law days before the 4 October election, while Mexico taxes Asian parcels harder and Argentina opens up. For carriers and platforms, the next fight is the 2027 consumption tax and the compliance data it will demand.
LatAm splitEnd of de minimisSources
- And the (Tariff) Beat Goes On: New Section 301 Forced-Labor Tariffs · Holland & Knight
- Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies · Federal Register (USTR)
- Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on the USMCA Joint Review · Office of the United States Trade Representative
- USMCA 2026 Joint Review: United States declines to extend Agreement, triggering annual reviews · White & Case
- Tracking the U.S.-Mexico Talks in the USMCA Review · Americas Society / Council of the Americas
- 75% of Americans Say Tariffs Will Be Important to Their Vote in the Midterms · Cato Institute
- Mexico's tariff on Chinese imports rattles cross-border e-commerce · FreightWaves
- Mexico will raise tariffs in 2026: which Asian products go up · N+ (Nmas)
- Fifty Percent Section 338 Tariffs on Many Canadian Goods Effective · Davis Wright Tremaine
- Canada announces targeted countermeasures and substantive support for workers and businesses in response to U.S. tariffs · Department of Finance Canada
- Fewer Canadian companies exported to the U.S. in 2025 as trade war raged on · The Hub
- One year of the 33.5% rate on parcel imports: what has changed in e-commerce · T21 / TyT
- Many small businesses at risk due to trade war: CFIB · Retail Insider
- What Canadian businesses need to know about the loss of the U.S. de minimis exemption · Canadian Federation of Independent Business