Who gets into Australia Post's regional network
The Australian Parcels Industry Forum, representing FedEx and Team Global Express, and the Conference of Asia Pacific Express Carriers told a Senate inquiry in September 2026 that Australia Post holds 70% of e-commerce parcels nationally and at least 95% in the regions, and that licensed post offices are barred from handling rivals' parcels. They cite modelling of A$1.5bn of revenue over ten years from opening the network. A separate Senate inquiry, moved by the Coalition in June 2026, is examining a leaked plan to convert or close up to 36 metropolitan licensed post offices. Our reading: regional access is now the main regulatory risk for Australia Post's parcel margin, and the most direct route for rivals to reach regional customers without building their own networks.101112
Fuel pass-through speed
Australia Post's monthly contract and StarTrack fuel surcharge went from 4.8% in early April 2026 to 12% from 23 April and 19.5% in June, then fell to 6.9% in September before rising to 13.5% for November. Freightways cut its fuel recovery lag from two months to about one week, while NZ Post's variable fuel rate still uses a two-month lag. Canberra halved fuel excise for three months from April. Our reading: in 2026 the speed of passing fuel to customers mattered more to carrier margins than the annual price review.57827282641
Overnight and same-day as the new standard
Amazon now offers overnight and two same-day windows in Sydney and Melbourne and says 72% of Australians can get next-day delivery or faster. Australia Post bought the same-day delivery platform Rendr. Our reading: speed is becoming a feature of the marketplace and the subscription rather than a premium service, which moves margin to whoever owns the order and pushes carriers without a platform anchor towards B2B and regional work.1323
Out-of-home delivery
Australia Post's locker network grew 64.3% to 1,510 banks in 2025-26, and 32% of Australian shoppers say they would switch retailers for out-of-home collection. The leaked retail plan includes replacing some outlets with parcel lockers. Our reading: locker density is becoming Australia Post's main cost advantage in cities, as its post office network is in the regions.2112
Ownership churn among the independents
In two years every large independent has changed hands or come under review: CouriersPlease passed to Pacific Equity Partners in March 2025, ADQ took 63.16% of Aramex in July 2025, Team Global Express is owned by Allegro and is divesting its Tasmanian business, Japan Post has narrowed Toll to logistics and forwarding, and Sendle collapsed in January 2026 before its brand was bought and relaunched. Our reading: financial owners will price for return on capital, which makes a price war less likely and fuel surcharges stickier.181917162122
An open border and the local-seller shift
Most goods worth A$1,000 or less enter Australia with no duty at the border and GST has been collected at checkout since 2018; New Zealand collects GST at checkout and since April 2026 adds a levy of NZ$2.21 per air consignment. Temu is adding Australian sellers, and in New Zealand domestic retailers took 80% of online spending in 2025, growing 11% against 5% for offshore. Our reading: the border is not closing, so the change in inbound flows comes from platforms holding more stock and sellers in the country, which turns cross-border parcels into domestic ones.3534293732
Australia Post / StarTrack
State-owned postal operator and express carrier
2025-26 group revenue A$9.83bn (+4.0%); parcels and services revenue A$8.01bn (+4.8%), parcel volumes +5.3%; 283 million parcels in July to December 2025, 111 million of them in the November-December peak; 1,510 parcel locker banks (+64.3%); about 4,000 retail outlets, 2,500 of them regional.
Strategy Turn a letters network into a parcels network: more lockers and out-of-home points, five regional parcel facilities under development (reported at the half year), the acquisition of the same-day delivery platform Rendr and a re-commerce partnership with Vinted. Capital investment rose 11.1% to A$413.3m, part-funded by A$173.2m of property sale proceeds.
Latest moves 1 July 2026: parcel prices up 4.95% on average and 4.25% for contract customers. Monthly fuel surcharge moved from 4.8% in early April to 19.5% in June and is 13.5% for November. 1 September 2026: Basic Postage Rate up from A$1.70 to A$1.85 after the ACCC raised no objection.
Under pressure from Underlying loss before tax of A$107.6m once A$139.4m of property gains are excluded; letters lost A$63.2m as volumes fell 14.7%; operating costs +3.9%. A Senate inquiry is examining a leaked plan to reshape the post office network, and rival carriers are asking the Senate for access to regional post offices.2345691012
Amazon Australia (Amazon Flex and own logistics)
Platform logistics
2025 accounts lodged with ASIC in April 2026: direct product sales A$2.33bn (+20%), third-party seller fees A$1.14bn, subscriptions A$632.8m and advertising A$392.2m. Eight fulfilment centres and 12 logistics sites.
Strategy Compete on speed with its own network: Amazon says 72% of Australians can get free next-day delivery or faster with Prime. It is investing A$1.6bn between 2024 and 2027 in five new operational sites and 4,500 jobs, and A$750m in a robotic fulfilment centre at Logan, Queensland, due in 2028 to process more than 125 million packages a year.
Latest moves August 2026: overnight Prime delivery in Sydney and Melbourne (order by 10pm, delivered 4am to 8am) alongside afternoon and evening same-day windows, free on orders over A$49; Amazon Day lets members group a week's orders into one delivery.
Under pressure from Our reading: each faster window adds last-mile cost per order, and the 2025 accounts show retail revenue growing more slowly in product sales than in fees, subscriptions and advertising, so delivery speed is paid for by the marketplace and Prime model rather than by delivery charges. The sources we used do not break out Amazon Flex driver numbers or parcel volumes.151314
Toll Group
Contract logistics and forwarding (Japan Post)
Sales above A$5.1bn in the year to March 2025, at break-even; Toll Global Forwarding grew 41.5% while Toll Global Logistics was flat.
Strategy Since Japan Post sold Toll's global express unit (express parcels, domestic forwarding and New Zealand operations, 41% of group revenue at the time of the sale process), Toll has concentrated on contract logistics and forwarding rather than domestic e-commerce parcels.
Latest moves Japan Post's restructuring of Toll continued through 2025, with The Loadstar reporting asset sales to manage cash. We found no 2026 move by Toll back into domestic parcels in the sources used.
Under pressure from Profitability: a break-even year on more than A$5bn of sales. Our reading: Toll is now a supplier of warehousing and line-haul to the parcel market rather than a direct competitor in home delivery.1642
Aramex Australia and New Zealand
Franchised courier network (majority-owned by ADQ since 2025)
The New Zealand High Court described Aramex as the third-largest courier company in New Zealand. Aramex group operates in more than 65 countries.
Strategy A franchised courier model built on the former Fastway networks, serving small and medium e-commerce senders. Ownership changed in July 2025 when Abu Dhabi's ADQ, through Q Logistics, completed a tender offer giving it 63.16% of Aramex together with AD Ports Group, with Aramex joining ADQ's transport and logistics cluster.
Latest moves 4 March 2026: the High Court approved a NZ$700,000 penalty in a Commerce Commission case over a non-compete clause in a 2021 reseller agreement with Zappy, a cartel provision under the Commerce Act; Aramex admitted the breach, called it unintentional and received a 30% reduction for cooperation.
Under pressure from Our reading: the new owner's priorities for Oceania have not been set out publicly in the sources we used, and a franchised network is exposed when fuel moves faster than franchisee pricing. The Commerce Commission case also raises the compliance bar on reseller and franchise contracts.2019
CouriersPlease
Independent parcel courier (Pacific Equity Partners)
Part of Freight Management Holdings, sold by SingPost to Pacific Equity Partners at an enterprise value of A$1.02bn, completed on 27 March 2025, together with efm Logistics, Border Express, BagTrans, Spectrum Logistics and Logistics Holdings Australia.
Strategy Our reading: as part of a private-equity owned freight and parcels group, CouriersPlease sits alongside B2B line-haul and 4PL businesses, which gives it scope to share network costs across freight and e-commerce volumes.
Latest moves Ownership change to Pacific Equity Partners completed in March 2025; we found no published 2026 volume or pricing figures for CouriersPlease in the sources used.
Under pressure from Our reading: with Australia Post holding about 70% of e-commerce parcels on the industry forum's estimate, independents compete for the remaining share against Amazon's own network and on fuel recovery speed.1810
Team Global Express (TGE)
Express parcels and freight (Allegro Funds)
FY25 revenue A$2.9bn (unchanged), statutory EBITDA A$104m (up A$99.7m), total comprehensive loss A$115.6m (A$74m better than the prior year), available liquidity A$93.4m.
Strategy Formerly Toll Global Express, bought from Japan Post by Allegro; the company is focusing on operational performance after completing its separation from Toll, and is pushing for access to Australia Post's regional retail network for collections and returns.
Latest moves 2025: separated its Tasmanian operations into Strait Link Logistics and began selling it to SLAH Group (A$25m deposit received in June 2025). September 2026: as a member of the Australian Parcels Industry Forum, asked a Senate inquiry to open Australia Post's regional post offices to rival carriers.
Under pressure from Still loss-making at the comprehensive level and carrying heavy finance costs since the buyout; flat revenue in a growing online market.17431011
Sendle
Digital courier platform (brand relaunched under new owner)
Founded in 2014 and raised more than A$100m; served thousands of small businesses before it stopped operating on 11 January 2026.
Strategy Originally a carbon-neutral small-business courier using other carriers' networks. In August 2025 it merged with US firms FirstMile and ACI Logistix to form Fast Group; the brand, trademarks and domain were later bought by Andrew McKenna of McKenna Worldwide Services, with Quantium Solutions handling deliveries in the relaunched business.
Latest moves January 2026: deliveries suspended after Fast Group ran out of capital; investor Federation said ACI Logistix had not been current on its obligations at the merger. February 2026: McGrathNicol appointed liquidators. July 2026: relaunch announced for September 2026, without the old company's debts.
Under pressure from Rebuilding customer trust after an abrupt shutdown that cancelled bookings and left parcels in transit.2122
NZ Post / CourierPost
State-owned postal operator
2025-26 revenue NZ$1,267m (+NZ$44m), EBITDA NZ$157m (+NZ$33m), net profit NZ$17m; 85 million parcels and 134 million letters; 17.1 million parcels in the November-December peak.
Strategy Completed a multi-year automated parcel processing network, restructured urban retail and expanded the Fliway and SCS integrated logistics division. The 2025 Postal Deed allows delivery two days a week to most addresses after three years, or earlier if mail falls below 120 million items a year.
Latest moves 1 July 2026: prices for all domestic Courier and Express products increased (individual rates notified to account holders) and the medium letter rose 70 cents to NZ$3.60. October 2026 variable rate for domestic courier 7.10% (6.50% fuel plus 0.60% road user charge), based on diesel with a two-month lag.
Under pressure from Letters fell to 134 million from 158 million a year earlier. Our reading: Freightways reported a 3.6 point gain in New Zealand express market share in 2025-26, so share is moving away from at least one rival, and NZ Post's two-month fuel lag is slower than Freightways' one week.23252426392728
NZ Couriers and Freightways Express Package
Listed express and parcel group (New Zealand and Australia)
FY26 group revenue NZ$1.46bn (+13.5%), NPAT NZ$94m (+17.3%); Express Package revenue +16.4%, EBITA NZ$168.1m (+17.3%), margin 13.6%; New Zealand volumes +5.1%; Australia now 39% of group revenue.
Strategy Win share with business customers in New Zealand while growing in Australia through Allied Express (volume +20%) and the VTFE acquisition; annual price reviews and cost-recovery initiatives.
Latest moves FY26: net market share gain of 3.6 points in New Zealand; cut fuel recovery lag from two months to about one week after diesel passed 350 cents a litre in March 2026.
Under pressure from Same-customer volumes fell 1.2% in the fourth quarter after the fuel shock; about NZ$2m of margin lost to fuel timing; management expects conditions to be softer for longer.2728
Temu and Shein (inbound marketplaces)
Cross-border marketplaces
Pure online marketplaces took A$18.9bn, 23% of Australian online spending, in 2025. In New Zealand, Temu is the main online retailer for 17% of shoppers and direct household imports of low-value goods rose 20%; spending with online department and variety stores, the category that includes Temu, rose 33% in 2024.
Strategy Temu launched a Local Seller Program in Australia in March 2025, adding Australian merchants and locally held stock alongside direct parcels from China.
Latest moves February 2026: the ACCC turned its focus to online retailers including Shein and Temu over unsafe products. 1 April 2026: New Zealand's low-value goods levy of NZ$2.21 per air consignment and NZ$2.09 by sea took effect.
Under pressure from Both countries keep the A$1,000 and NZ$1,000 duty lines but collect GST at checkout, so the pressure is on product safety and cost recovery rather than duty. Our reading: the shift to local sellers moves part of this volume from international inbound to domestic parcels.1313736293438