From price war to price floor
In 2025 local express associations and brand headquarters raised the minimum price per parcel, first in Yiwu (from RMB 1.1 to 1.2) and then in Guangdong (RMB 1.4 floor from August). In 2026 the increases spread to Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shandong, Jiangxi and Hunan, and the State Post Bureau made 'comprehensive rectification of involution-style competition' a priority for the year, with inspections in Henan and Jiangsu in August and September. A revision of the Price Law to tighten rules on below-cost dumping is being prepared. Our reading: the floor is set by administrative pressure rather than by a national price rule, which makes it durable in the regulator's eyes but fragile when volume growth slows.2838396531
Share moves to the strongest franchise networks
In the first half STO gained 1.33 points of share, ZTO 0.9, YTO 0.7 and J&T 0.5, while Yunda lost 1.1. All four listed franchise networks reported strong profit growth (YTO +73%, Yunda +89%, STO +128%), helped by higher unit prices and lower unit costs. Concentration is already very high: the top eight brands handle 96.2% of volume. Our reading: with prices held up, the contest moves to cost per parcel and to who controls the franchisees, and the weakest networks are more likely to be absorbed than to win a price war.101314163
Premium carriers trade volume for yield
SF's August volume fell 8.53% while its revenue per parcel rose 7.84% to RMB 14.31, and its first-half net profit fell 4.11% even as recurring profit rose. JD Logistics grew first-half revenue 26.5% to RMB 124.7 billion, but Deppon, which it took private in March 2026, swung to a RMB 262 million loss on price competition and integration costs. China Post handled close to 20 billion parcels and express items in 2025 and says it has cut its cost gap to the industry from RMB 3.18 to RMB 0.1 per item. Our reading: the time-definite tier is being squeezed between cheaper franchise networks that are now more disciplined on price and platforms that want their own delivery promises.72022232526
Platforms redraw the ownership map
From 1 July 2026 Cainiao's domestic supply chain business moved into Alibaba's Taotian e-commerce group, while overseas logistics stays in Cainiao; Cainiao's Daniao network had already been sold to STO. Alibaba sold 25 million ZTO ADSs for about US$500 million in September, cutting its stake from 9.3% to 6.1%, reduced its YTO stake to 14.75% and exited SF Intra-city. SF and J&T completed a cross-shareholding in June 2026 (SF about 9.98% of J&T, J&T 4.29% of SF). Douyin works through partner carriers rather than its own network. Our reading: platforms are moving from owning carriers to setting the rules carriers must meet, which shifts bargaining power towards the platform's checkout.27111963
Outbound: from air mail to containers and local stock
Chinese low-value exports to the EU fell 54% in July and 65% in August year on year after the EU's €3 duty, and China to EU freighter capacity fell 19% in the 48 hours after 1 July, while China to US e-commerce air volumes grew 23% in August as flows adjust to the US de minimis suspension. China counts more than 2,500 overseas warehouses with over 30 million m² of floor space; JD Logistics has more than 2 million m², SF 2.75 million m² in 37 countries and regions, and Cainiao is deploying robotic warehouses in the US and Europe. Our reading: Chinese outbound growth now comes from bulk shipments into stock held near the buyer, which favours carriers with warehouses abroad over pure air consolidators.47484644225354
The courier and the parcel cost more to comply with
Delivering to a locker or station without the recipient's consent can be fined up to RMB 10,000 (RMB 10,000 to 30,000 in serious cases) under the express market rules in force since March 2024. Since 1 September 2025 agreements to waive social insurance are void under a Supreme People's Court interpretation. The national standard limiting excessive express packaging applies from 1 July 2026 (a box no more than 1.5 to 2.5 times the item, at most two layers for most goods), and the State Post Bureau is pushing service into 2,939 villages in its western and central pilot counties. Our reading: these rules raise cost per parcel at the margin, and they are part of why the regulator wants carriers to earn more per parcel.32333435
ZTO Express
Listed franchise network (NYSE, HKEX), China's largest by volume
Q2 2026: 10.5 billion parcels (+6.5%), 19.9% share, revenue RMB 14.5 billion (+23.0%), net income RMB 3.08 billion (+56.7%). Guides to 40.8 to 42.4 billion parcels for 2026 (+6% to 10%).
Strategy Management says the industry is moving away from extensive scale expansion and that competition is 'returning to rationality'; ZTO grows retail parcels (more than 11.7 million a day) and reverse logistics (about 9.1 million a day).
Latest moves Core express price per parcel up 15.5% in Q2; new US$1.5 billion share buyback. Alibaba sold 25 million ADSs in September 2026, cutting its stake from 9.3% to 6.1%, after ending its investor rights agreement in May.
Under pressure from Unit cost per parcel up 13.5% to RMB 1.01 in Q2; our reading is that a loss of share to STO and YTO would test its pricing discipline.8911
YTO Express
Listed franchise network (Shanghai) with its own airline
H1 2026: 16.28 billion parcels (+9.52%), revenue RMB 38.89 billion (+8.39%), net profit RMB 3.18 billion (+73.44%); share 16.2% (+0.7 points). August: 2.84 billion parcels (+12.93%).
Strategy Deep cost management and AI: unit cost fell 5.99% to RMB 1.90 in the first half while unit revenue fell only 1.04% to RMB 2.17, lifting unit gross profit by 57%.
Latest moves August unit revenue RMB 2.05 (-4.4%), the only network among those publishing monthly data still cutting price. Alibaba reduced its stake to 14.75% in September 2026.
Under pressure from Its aviation segment runs at a negative gross margin; our reading is that its price cuts put it closest to the regulator's line on below-cost competition.13121011
STO Express (Shentong)
Listed franchise network (Shenzhen)
H1 2026: 14.30 billion parcels (+15.81%), revenue RMB 32.49 billion (+29.83%), net profit RMB 1.04 billion (+128.31%), share 14.24% (+1.33 points). August: 2.53 billion parcels (+18.0%) at RMB 2.13 each (+3.4%).
Strategy Grow share by absorbing capacity, including Cainiao's Daniao network acquired in November 2025, while holding unit revenue up.
Latest moves Operating cash flow up 178.85% to RMB 2.06 billion in the first half.
Under pressure from The company names fuel price swings, competition and the absorption of new capacity as risks.1615
Yunda
Listed franchise network (Shenzhen)
H1 2026: 12.26 billion parcels, revenue RMB 26.44 billion (+6.47%), net profit RMB 998 million (+88.82%), share about 12.2% (-1.1 points). August: 2.10 billion parcels (-2.05%) at RMB 2.12 each (+10.42%).
Strategy Price over volume: unit revenue up double digits in July and August while unit expenses fell 7.46% in the first half.
Latest moves Alibaba cut its stake to 0.71%.
Under pressure from Our reading: it is the network losing share fastest, so a return to price competition would hit it first.1471011
J&T Express
Listed franchise network (HKEX) across China, Southeast Asia and new markets
Q2 2026: 6.21 billion parcels in China (+10.6%, 68.2 million a day) and group volume above 100 million a day for the first time. H1: China 11.6 billion parcels (+9.6%, 11.6% share), group revenue US$7.7 billion (+39.5%), adjusted net profit US$350.6 million (+124.3%).
Strategy Use China for scale and Southeast Asia and new markets for growth: non-China revenue reached 50% of the total in the first half.
Latest moves Completed a cross-shareholding with SF in June 2026: SF holds about 9.98% of J&T and J&T 4.29% of SF, with a five-year lock-up.
Under pressure from The State Post Bureau issued a formal notice over frequent production-safety accidents and weak unified safety management.171819
SF Holding (SF Express)
Listed direct-operated network with its own airline (Shenzhen, HKEX)
H1 2026: revenue RMB 155.5 billion (+5.89%), net profit RMB 5.50 billion (-4.11%), recurring net profit RMB 5.0 billion (+9.3%), 7.86 billion parcels (+0.13%).
Strategy Shift growth to supply chain and international (RMB 39.58 billion, +15.6%, 25.5% of revenue; international express and cross-border e-commerce about +60%), with overseas warehouses in 37 countries and regions covering 2.75 million m². Dividend payout of 45% to 50% to 2028.
Latest moves Cross-shareholding with J&T; about 15,000 AI agents deployed; SF Airlines opened a Shanghai to Singapore freighter route in September 2026.
Under pressure from August volume down 8.53% while price per parcel rose 7.84%: our reading is that the franchise networks' higher prices have not yet brought volume back to SF.20215319667
JD Logistics (with Deppon)
Listed integrated logistics group (HKEX), controlled by JD.com
H1 2026: revenue RMB 124.7 billion (+26.5%), profit RMB 3.3 billion (+10.5%); revenue from external express and freight customers RMB 65.3 billion (+34.8%). Overseas warehouse space above 2 million m².
Strategy One network for JD's own retail and outside shippers, at home and in Europe, where JoyExpress delivers in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and France and Joybuy launched in six countries in March 2026.
Latest moves Took Deppon private at RMB 19 a share (up to about RMB 3.8 billion) to end 'two reporting lines, two command centres'; Deppon was delisted on 31 March 2026.
Under pressure from Deppon swung to a RMB 262 million first-half loss, citing price competition and integration costs.222425235265
China Post and EMS
State-owned postal group
2025: revenue RMB 677 billion, profit RMB 76 billion, close to 20 billion parcels and express items, 42 mail aircraft.
Strategy Universal service and rural reach as the backstop network for express into villages, while cutting its cost gap to the industry from RMB 3.18 to RMB 0.1 per item.
Latest moves Backstop network in the State Post Bureau's postal pilot covering 2,939 villages in 17 central and western counties.
Under pressure from We found no 2026 results for China Post or EMS; our reading is that its role depends on policy support more than on price.2635
Cainiao (Alibaba)
Alibaba's logistics arm, now focused on international
More than 40 overseas warehouses in 18 countries; robotic warehouses planned in Hong Kong, the US, the Netherlands, Spain, France and Germany in 2026.
Strategy International supply chain and logistics technology; the domestic supply chain business moved into Taotian on 1 July 2026 and the Daniao network went to STO.
Latest moves Alibaba has sold more than RMB 7 billion of logistics holdings, including stakes in ZTO, YTO and SF Intra-city.
Under pressure from Our reading: without a domestic network of its own, Cainiao competes abroad against JD Logistics, SF and J&T, each of which owns delivery capacity.542711
PDD Holdings (Temu, Pinduoduo)
Platform, largest source of low-value outbound parcels
Q2 2026: revenue RMB 112.4 billion (+8%), transaction services (including Temu) RMB 54.7 billion (+13%), net income RMB 27.2 billion (-12%).
Strategy Set up Xinpinmu in March 2026 with RMB 15 billion in a first phase to integrate Pinduoduo and Temu supply chains and build own brands for global markets.
Latest moves Its results release gives no logistics detail; Temu's shift to local warehouses is reported by trade sources.
Under pressure from EU fees and the US de minimis suspension remove the economics of single air parcels; our reading is that Temu's logistics spend moves from air consolidators to ocean freight and local carriers.5949